Bitcoin Network Basics
A new block is released roughly every 10 minutes.
Each block currently carries a reward of 3.125 BTC, updated after the April 2024 halving.
On average, there are about 144 blocks per day and 52,560 blocks per year.
Device Speed vs. Network
One Shot Miner: about 1 MH per second, which is 1 million guesses per second.
Bitcoin network as of late Sep 2025: about 1.1 ZH per second, which is 1.1 multiplied by 10 to the power of 21 guesses per second.
Your fraction of the network: about 1 in 1.1 quadrillion for each block.
Probability Calculations
Formula:
p block equals h device divided by H network
Example using a 1 MH per second device and a network of about 1.1 ZH per second
Per block, about 1 in 1.1 quadrillion chance.
Per day, about 1 in 7 trillion chance, based on 144 blocks.
Per year, about 1 in 21 billion chance, based on 52,560 blocks.
These odds rise or fall as the Bitcoin network hashrate changes, but they always remain extremely low for small miners.